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Every scenario for the Kings in the 2017 NBA Draft Lottery

  • Jordan Goins
  • May 16, 2017
  • 3 min read

Happy NBA Draft Lottery day to everyone! Tonight, we find out where each team will be ranked to make their selection in the upcoming 2017 NBA Draft. The Kings are projected to pick at #8 and again at #10 with the Pelicans pick they received in the DeMarcus Cousins trade.

Let's first take a look at the Pelicans' pick and what can happen with it:

Best case scenario:

•Pick stays put at #10 (If this happens, the Kings will pick at #10. This is the most likely scenario as the pick has an 87.0% chance of staying at 10.)

Not bad, but not good scenario:

•Pick falls to #11 or #12 (Kings would still own the pick, but would fall a spot or two. This will happen if pick 11 (Hornets), 12 (Pistons), 13 (Nuggets), or 14 (Heat) move into the top 3. There's an 8.9% chance that the pick falls to 11 and a 0.2% chance that it falls to 12.)

Worst case scenario:

Pick moves up/jumps to the top 3 (If you don't hear the Pelicans' name called at 12, 11, or 10 that means they've jumped into the top 3, which means the Kings will not own the pick until at least 2018's NBA Draft (still top 1 protected), this pick has a 1.1% chance of going at #1, a 1.3% chance of going at #2, and a 1.6% chance of going at #3.)

Now let's take a look at the Kings' pick:

Best case scenario:

Pick moves to top 3 and the 76ers' pick moves to top 3 (In this very unlikely scenario, the Kings will pick in the top 3. If the Kings win the lottery for the first time since 1989 (a 2.8% chance at #1, a 3.3% chance at #2, and a 3.9% chance at #3) they need the Sixers to move into the top 3 as well due to Philly owning the rights to swap picks with the Kings if they choose to. Philadelphia has an 11.9% chance at #1, a 12.6% chance at #2 and a 13.3% chance at #3. Perfect case scenario would be the Sixers winning the lottery and the Kings jumping to #2.)

The not bad, but slightly disheartening scenario:

•Kings jump into the top 3 and the 76ers (as well as any other team) don't (If this happens, the Kings will pick at #5 (unless a team lower than #4 besides the Kings jump into the top 3 as well) and Philadelphia will pick with the Kings' top 3 spot. Missing out on a potential superstar in the top 3 would definitely suck, but at least the Kings would jump 3 spots from their original slated picking place. This would also very much make De'Aaron Fox/Jayson Tatum a real possibility for the Kings. The lowest the Kings can fall in this scenario is #7.)

Most likely scenario:

•The Kings stay at #8 (This has a 72.5% chance of happening)

The why do bad things always happen to us/Worst case scenario:

•Kings falls to #9 or #10 (Luckily for the Kings, it'll be virtually impossible to lose this pick. The lowest the pick will more than likely fall is #10 and that'll only happen if two of the teams below the Kings (picks 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and/or 14) jump into the top 3.)

Absolute BEST case scenario: Kings jump to #2, 76ers jump to #1, and Pelicans stay at #10.

Absolute WORST case scenario: Pelicans pick jumps to top 3 and Kings pick some how, some way falls to pick #11 and the Kings end up with no picks in the first round.

So there you have it, let's all hope the Kings walk away tonight with pick #2 and #10 and the 76ers walk away with pick #1.

 

Jordan Goins

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